[What do you think] The strongest storm-image
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Struck
moderator, translator
Hello scientist and civil scientist from CycloneCenter,
with the new category 'What do you think' in the Talk-Board, we can discuss freely about some science questions, which we can find in the classification.
Also the aim could be to get a better feeling for the classification. : - )
After we have come to a possible solution with a consensus in our discussion, feel free to post a new picture to this theme.Here is the first question: After a classification I had thought about two storm images for a long time.
So what do you think: Which storm-image represents the strongest and why?
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bretarn
translator
It's a tricky choice, at first glance I'd pick n°1 as strngest: even if cold clouds are less cird=cular and focused, it looks like an eye with its hotspot forming in central part of storm 1; second reason: spinning being more developped...but storm 2 gets an bigger cold clouds circular structure , the shape being much more homogeneous which coud mean more powerful. Thats the reason why my final choice is N°2 storm 😃
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shocko61
Hi Struck , Hi bretarn , Eye storms are in general stronger however the eye of this #1 is not showing rotation enough for sustainability and looks like it is in decay where the #2 is looking like it is building up , so I am going for #2 and I agree with what bretarn has said as well . It would be very interesting to see the stats for the both storms IE wind knots and barometric pressures . Struck this is a very good Idea , makes one think . Ian
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Struck
moderator, translator
Hi bretarn, hi shocko61. Special thanks to you for participating here on this special 'Talk Event'.
Both of you are right in my opinion with the statement, it is difficult and a tricky choice to find out the strongest storm here.
In the following lines I will make a try, too, to get a possible solution for this question.#Eye-storms have a strong intensity. The reason for this fact are the elements 'rotation' and mostly the powerful 'eye-wall', where the wind gets his highest speed.
The picture #1 could show us an #eye-storm, when you did your first view.
On the second view of picture #1 we can discover, that the storm on the first picture doesn't have a blue eye-wall, around his storm-center. The blue area is interrupted by a warm temperatured area in the South of the storm-center.So because of this fact, I think picture #1 shows us a #curved-band storm, which has a lower intensity than an eye-storm.
Picture #2, I think, is much easier and should be an #embedded-center storm.
Both of the pictures, the curved-band storm and the embedded-center storm could have the same expanse in the region of the picture.
In my point of view embedded-center storms are more organized than curved-band storms, so the intensity of power or wind-speed could be higher here.
Really difficult, but at the moment I would like to tend to picture #2. : - )
Maybe you have other arguments to find out the solution.
Special thanks to you again for your comments here.Posted
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cch001
scientist
Nice discussion. I know which one I would classify as stronger, but I will wait to reveal my answer in case there are others who would like to participate.
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shocko61
In #1 image It is less organized and does not look to have a lot of rotation hence wind speed is to me at least,down , where as the #2 image looks more organized and showing like it is building up . I see a lot of pattern in storms and some are like weak in the pattern and conversely some look more , for the want of a better word , solid.also I would like very much to see what cch001 has to say . Ian shocko61
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Struck
moderator, translator
As I have said, in my try to find a solution for this task, the rotation of #eye-storms and the wind-speed in #eye-storms are much stronger than #embedded-center storms.
I think the first picture shouldn't be an #eye-storm, more a #curved-band storm, but maybe the rotation-speed in the first picture could be the dominant and most important feature for this task, which we need to consider for our arguments. : - )
I am really looking forward to see, what cch001 thinks about this question. : )
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shocko61
The argument I think IS in Struck's last comment and tends to back up what we mortals were told when we started this ,Quote " Eye storms are generally strongest of the storm systems . I made a choice and will stay with it on moral grounds er clouds (;=)
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Struck
moderator, translator
Thank you for your comment shocko61. So which consensus can we get by focusing on our comments? cch001, I or we are looking forward to your possible solution to the first question in this topic. : - )
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cch001
scientist
I believe Figure 1 on the left is stronger. First, you can make the argument that Figure 1 has an eye. It is a "ragged" eye, which indicates that the storm is probably at minimal hurricane strength (winds about 65 kt. or 33 m/s).
Even if you do not believe that Figure 1 has an eye, I think it is safe to say that is a very well-formed curved band system. The curved band wraps nearly all the way around, which would translate to a wind speed of about 60 kt. or 30 m/s.
Figure 2 on the right is a classic embedded center. By looking at the choices on the cyclone center site about how strong it is, I would match it up to the middle panel, which translates to wind speeds of about 50 kt or 25 m/s.
I hope that we can have more discussions like this. I hope it has been useful! -Chris
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shocko61
Good evening cchoo1 , Thank you very much , I have learned that you can ( not I ) estimate the speed from an image by the band curvature and a few other things too but I have learned a lot in these discussions and Struck has been very helpful too . I hope this sort of thing will continue please . Hoping the team has time . :-)> . Ian shocko61
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cch001
scientist
As we build a bigger community I expect that more of these questions will be posted here.
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Struck
moderator, translator
I wish you all a great saturday,
today we proudly present the next new episode of the category 'What do you think: The strongest storm-image'.
Thank you for your great and detailed discussion and responses about the first pic.Here I have found an other interesting picture:
So what do you think? Which feature of these two storm images is the most dominant here?
We are looking forward to your answers. = )Posted
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Marquito773
1 Because you can see The eye and it look Like level 1
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Marquito773
1
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Struck
moderator, translator
Hi Marquito773 and welcome to CycloneCenter = ).
Thank you for your comment.We are excited to see, what other civil scientist think about this case.
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rchaddy
Struck
On your first comment u said that you think it is no.2. Why is this ?Posted
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Struck
moderator, translator
Welcome to CycloneCenter rchaddy,
thank you for your comment.
In my post I make a try to solve the question at the beginning of this topic about the first picture example, which storm-image represents the strongest-storm.
I followed my personal opinion about this example and gave the following statement:Picture #2, I think, is much easier and should be an #embedded-center storm.
Both of the pictures, the curved-band storm and the embedded-center
storm could have the same expanse in the region of the picture.In my point of view embedded-center storms are more organized than
curved-band storms, so the intensity of power or wind-speed could be
higher here.Really difficult, but at the moment I would like to tend to picture
#2. : - )cch01 told us, that picture 1 could be the strongest storm in the first example, because of the formation of a 'ragged eye' or of a very well-formed curved band.
So in this topic all the members from CycloneCenter make their own try to solve the question of this topic by many storm-pictures-examples.
Feel free to ask a question at every time here. =)
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pete12
Hi!
I think these two pictures showing same storm. The first picture (no. 1) is taken before second picture (no. 2) within cca. 24 hours. The storm system has moved in direction South-South-East then South-East. The first picture shows a strong moment of storm. The warm air from sea level rose up to the upper troposphere (altitude: 15 km) where cooled down. (circa -60 -70 Celsius degree) On second image we can see that storm system has lost from angular momentum, and this is an weak phase of storm.
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chairgaf
Curved band storm for #1 and embeded center for #2, with my druthers of #2 being stronger, for the fact that it looks more organized that 1.
Pete12 DOES bring up a good point that they could both be of the same storm, but my moneys still on #1
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shocko61
Hi Struck , I think #1 because there is cold cloud in both more in #2 but the rotation is is stronger in #1 and has an eye it looks to be able to build up too. I will go with #1 . And if I had these side by side in a storm I would go with #1 . Ian shocko61
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sharon039
I am following the logic behind choice no. 2 for the first set. However, my intuitive civil engineer feels like tossing out something outside of wind speed for classifying strength. Storm #1 is moving a considerable amount of mass, significantly more than storm #2. If you look at the physical distance from center of rotation, center #1 is controlling a greater distance of mass. Comparing destructive ability, storm 1 looks like it has far more staying power... The sort that doesn't bode well for people who are going to be out in it at landfall. Plus, it has arms wrapped on all sides which means it is layered...which I see as protecting the center and giving the storm presence before the center comes close to land. 1 is obviously an eye in decay but it is still at the center of an extremely powerful system. Under the right landfall conditions, I think that 1 will be the one to stack up the most wide spread damages, and also be the most costly. A wind speed 10 mph less over twice the area can have more destructive ability than a smaller area of higher speeds. Nor do I see storm 2 as more organized. Storm 1, with its greater area and multiple bands pulled in tight is more organized to my eye. I can follow the logic, but I am not sold or convinced on storm 2. i feel that classification of storm 2 as stronger is missing a lot of the concept of strength that is inherit in the cumulative... Wind speed's usefulness is lessened without area...
For set number 2, I think 1 definitely. It looks like the cyclone pulled up a lot of its mass from the right side of the picture and rained it out during its transition over the islands which weakened its band and exposed the center on the second picture.
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cch001
scientist
#1 has a distinct eye, better spiral structure. #2 is probably embedded-center with not as good spiral structure. So I say #1.
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robinr0
I, too, like #1 as an eye, stronger than #2 as a shear, since the very cold center is almost touching the warmest area, in the lower left quadrant.
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I feel like image number 1 is the strongest by the eye it has also with the spin. It seems to have faster wind speeds than image 2 which does not seem to spin as fast.
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vallareviv
I would say #2 - embeded one, #1 seems to have false eye only like the curved band.
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